I think it’s lovely that so many of you want my take on the Texas coaching move. I don’t know that I know any more than you do since I’ve been out of TV for 12 years now (gasp!) but here are my thoughts:
First off, this can’t be a
surprise. Yes, there was a “vote of confidence” given last month, but that’s worth
less than the paper it’s written on. Texas thought they had a legitimate chance
at Urban Meyer. Maybe they were led to believe that. Maybe it was just hubris.
But they took a run at the big fish and he got away. No harm no foul, right?
Wrong. From the moment it became clear that they were courting Meyer, it was
EXTREMELY unlikely that Tom Herman would be back on the DKR sideline in
September.
For one, the relationship is now damaged. Herman knew they would have rather had someone else – he also knew that so many alums were behind it - and that makes everything harder. He’s less likely to be a “team player” with his Athletic Director and boosters, and he wasn’t exactly that guy to start with. That’s a bad place to be.
But worse than that, it cripples recruiting. What kid will be convinced by Tom Herman that Texas and his scheme is right for them when they know he could be gone at any moment? It’s still Texas. They’ll still get some guys. But those 5-star kids that are the hardest to land would have been even harder. We can’t have that.
There were already reasons to move on. The problem is, there weren’t slam dunk reasons.
Herman seemed immature at times – he mocked the Missouri quarterback at the end of a game. He was seen headbutting his players in what felt like a showy display of excitement. He gave the old “double bird” to Longhorn Network cameras in the “war room” on signing day. He never quite seemed to get that he was the serious face of a serious program now. That didn’t sit well with boosters. But they hired a “player’s coach” and you can forgive the eccentric when it’s going well on the field.
Speaking of on the field… it got better. Let’s not pretend it didn’t. 4 seasons, 4 bowl wins. A couple of them were against real teams, too. The program is better today than it was when Charlie Strong was shown the door. But it always felt like they should have produced more.
The Longhorns played in 27 one-score games under Herman (the most of any power 5 program during that time.) They went 14-13 in those games. Texas was a top-25 ranked team for 19 of those games and went 10-9 in those, so whether they were good or not, every close game was a coin flip. That’s terribly frustrating. It makes it hard to fully buy in, and also makes it hard to give up. They seemed to perpetually be a play or two away, finding new and creative ways to lose in the final minutes – which often makes it feel like just bad luck. Until it happens over… and over… and over. Herman never lost a game at Texas by more than 20 points. They hung around. But let’s face it - results are results.
Here’s where it gets harder to stomach: a ranked Texas team lost to an unranked opponent 7 times during the Herman tenure. Nobody has done that more during these 4 years. Nobody. So even when they were “good” it turns out they weren’t good enough.
When you put all of that together (on the field and off) with the fact that they had already decided to try and hire a better coach, this relationship was doomed.
So Texas had a choice to make: do we fire him and start the coaching search in public? That can lead to bidding wars and weeks of rumors, then the perception of “missing out” on your top choices. Chris Del Conte decided to try it a different way. This was his hire. He may have known exactly who he wanted. He may have talked to a few different guys. But in the end, he got one of the biggest names available. He got the quarterback whisperer off of THE team. Are there some crimson flags? Sure. We’ll get to those.
But if you look at Sarkisian’s resume’, you start with the quarterbacks. In his time in college football, Sark has coached Carson Palmer, Matt Leinert, Matt Cassell, Mark Sanchez, Jake Locker, Tua Tagovailoa… all of whom went on to play on Sundays. That’s a long list… and Sarkisian is only 46. That’s going to sound awfully good in 5-star living rooms. Then, when Alabama lost their superstar Tua to the Miami Dolphins, they turned it over to Mac Jones, who had nowhere near the same hype, and you could argue Jones has been better. Plus, Sarkisian brings NFL experience, which always opens some doors with recruits.
Let’s get to the drunken elephant in the room. Yes, 5 years ago Sarkisian was forced out at USC due to an alcohol problem. He’s been open about it. He had just gone through a divorce and he got himself into trouble. He went to rehab and has since been hired by both the Atlanta Falcons and Alabama without any incidents. People make mistakes and deserve second chances. So far it looks like Sark has learned from his.
I’ve also heard a lot of talk about his head coaching record. It’s only 47-35. At first blush, that doesn’t look so good. But let’s start here: his first head coaching job came at Washington after an 0-12 season. That’s right – 0 wins. Sarkisian’s first year on the job, they went 5-7. In year 2, they were above .500. 3 more years at Washington winning more than he lost before resigning to be the head coach at USC. That’s not exactly failing. Then the Trojans went 9-4 in his only full year before falling off the wagon. It’s not world-beating, but you know what has happened since then? Sarkisian has gotten to watch and learn under Nick Saban.
I’m also hearing “Saban assistants haven’t done very well” but that list includes Mark Dantonio, Will Muschamp, Lane Kiffin, Kirby Smart and Jimbo Fisher. Smart, solid football men who always seem to find work at the highest level. If you don’t think Kirby Smart and Jimbo Fisher have “broken through” then I guess one of the Saban guys is due. But there aren’t many coaching trees producing more fruit than that.
Just like any other hire, a lot of the Sarkisian success will come from who he brings in as his assistants. Tom Herman saw it as a way to throw million-dollar contracts at his buddies. That was the first of many ways Herman didn’t take it all quite seriously enough.
Which brings us full circle.
Herman could have stayed if he had been a bit more of a grown-up. Or if he had found a way to win just a few more of those close games. But he wasn’t. And he didn’t. And Texas went after Urban Meyer, so here we are. Herman had to go.
Texas could have pursued Pat Fitzgerald (15 years at Northwestern averaging 7 wins per year – even had a few 10-win seasons, but has never made a Rose Bowl or New Year’s 6 game.) Or Matt Campbell! He’s the hot head coaching name right now after winning the Fiesta Bowl. But he’s had 5 years at Iowa State and just had his first season there with less than 5 losses, so let’s not get starry-eyed. Those would be good hires, sure. And I'm sure you can think of a few more. But Sarkisian is in that same conversation.
Chris Del Conte is the Athletic Director. Herman wasn’t his hire. He gets to own this one, and most people think he’s a pretty smart guy. So was this process perfect? Of course not.
But In the end, I think Texas needed a change, Del Conte needed his own guy, and Sarkisian needed a chance to prove that he can lead a team to the promised land.
Ok, cool. Hook ‘Em!
